InconceivaBall!


The table below lists the most impressive comebacks in league games over the past decade in Europe's top leagues. In this case, the best comebacks refer to teams winning matches from a losing position, especially when winning seemed very unlikely at some stage during the match.

For example, in Man City's title winning final league game against QPR in '12-'13, the chances of Man City winning the game were lowest in the 91st minute, where their chances of winning the game were at 0.5% (Man City were 2-1 down to QPR). Man City famously went on to win the game. It was the 53rd most impressive comeback in the past decade in the Top 5 European leagues.

R Date Home Away League Minute Score p(Win) Result
1 2020-01-31 Rennes Nantes FRA1 94 1-2 0.00% 3-2
2 2012-03-21 QPR Liverpool ENG1 76 0-2 0.05% 3-2
3 2016-11-20 Sampdoria Sassuolo ITA1 83 0-2 0.08% 3-2
4 2016-03-05 Everton West Ham ENG1 77 2-0 0.08% 2-3
5 2019-03-17 Eibar Valladolid ESP1 90 1-0 0.09% 1-2
6 2019-12-16 Cagliari Lazio ITA1 92 1-0 0.10% 1-2
7 2014-10-20 Real Sociedad Getafe ESP1 89 1-0 0.10% 1-2
8 2013-01-12 Reading West Brom ENG1 81 0-2 0.11% 3-2
9 2016-12-04 Bournemouth Liverpool ENG1 75 1-3 0.11% 4-3
10 2015-05-17 Elche Athletic Bilbao ESP1 79 2-0 0.11% 2-3
11 2017-05-13 RB Leipzig Bayern Munich DEU1 83 4-2 0.11% 4-5
12 2017-12-04 Girona Alavés ESP1 71 2-0 0.11% 2-3
13 2018-08-11 Angers Nîmes FRA1 75 3-1 0.12% 3-4
14 2016-12-18 Genoa Palermo ITA1 68 3-1 0.13% 3-4
15 2014-03-09 Bordeaux Lyon FRA1 90 1-0 0.13% 1-2
16 2014-04-13 Torino Genoa ITA1 91 0-1 0.15% 2-1
17 2018-05-06 Metz Angers FRA1 91 1-0 0.15% 1-2
18 2011-12-10 Real Betis Valencia ESP1 90 0-1 0.16% 2-1
19 2012-08-18 Lorient Montpellier FRA1 89 0-1 0.17% 2-1
20 2015-02-27 Marseille Caen FRA1 66 2-0 0.17% 2-3
21 2016-02-27 Toulouse Rennes FRA1 89 1-0 0.17% 1-2
22 2012-09-16 Roma Bologna ITA1 71 2-0 0.18% 2-3
23 2010-08-28 Wolfsburg Mainz DEU1 38 3-0 0.18% 3-4
24 2016-11-26 Swansea City Crystal Palace ENG1 90 3-4 0.21% 5-4
25 2018-03-18 Benevento Cagliari ITA1 90 1-0 0.22% 1-2
26 2013-04-07 Inter Milan Atalanta ITA1 64 3-1 0.25% 3-4
27 2017-12-10 1. FC Köln SC Freiburg DEU1 89 3-2 0.26% 3-4
28 2019-01-27 Parma SPAL ITA1 69 2-0 0.26% 2-3
29 2012-12-16 Napoli Bologna ITA1 85 2-1 0.28% 2-3
30 2011-02-20 Genoa Roma ITA1 51 0-3 0.28% 4-3
31 2015-03-09 Córdoba Getafe ESP1 86 1-0 0.29% 1-2
32 2011-04-30 Cesena Inter Milan ITA1 90 1-0 0.29% 1-2
33 2018-04-07 Man. City Man. United ENG1 52 2-0 0.31% 2-3
34 2012-10-28 Hannover 96 Gladbach DEU1 69 2-0 0.32% 2-3
35 2013-10-20 Fiorentina Juventus ITA1 65 0-2 0.32% 4-2
36 2019-12-02 Cagliari Sampdoria ITA1 73 1-3 0.32% 4-3
37 2012-04-11 Catania Lecce ITA1 87 1-0 0.33% 1-2
38 2011-09-18 Hannover 96 Dortmund DEU1 86 0-1 0.33% 2-1
39 2011-11-20 Sporting Gijon Getafe ESP1 88 0-1 0.35% 2-1
40 2014-03-22 Valenciennes Ajaccio FRA1 86 2-1 0.36% 2-3
41 2018-05-12 Strasbourg Lyon FRA1 87 1-2 0.37% 3-2
42 2014-03-08 Toulouse Reims FRA1 74 0-2 0.38% 3-2
43 2012-12-09 Everton Tottenham ENG1 89 0-1 0.39% 2-1
44 2017-12-30 Watford Swansea City ENG1 85 1-0 0.39% 1-2
45 2016-04-30 Watford Aston Villa ENG1 89 1-2 0.40% 3-2
46 2019-12-27 Wolves Man. City ENG1 54 0-2 0.41% 3-2
47 2011-02-05 1. FC Köln Bayern Munich DEU1 54 0-2 0.42% 3-2
48 2011-08-21 Mainz Schalke 04 DEU1 56 2-0 0.43% 2-4
49 2017-03-18 Nancy Lorient FRA1 65 2-0 0.45% 2-3
50 2011-12-04 Real Sociedad Málaga ESP1 88 1-2 0.46% 3-2
51 2015-02-23 Levante Granada ESP1 87 0-1 0.49% 2-1
52 2016-04-17 Mainz 1. FC Köln DEU1 63 2-0 0.49% 2-3
53 2012-05-13 Man. City QPR ENG1 91 1-2 0.50% 3-2
54 2015-01-10 Bastia PSG FRA1 31 0-2 0.51% 4-2
55 2016-09-21 Rennes Marseille FRA1 85 1-2 0.52% 3-2
56 2019-03-16 West Ham Huddersfield ENG1 74 1-3 0.53% 4-3
57 2018-09-15 Mainz FC Augsburg DEU1 86 0-1 0.53% 2-1
58 2014-09-21 Leicester Man. United ENG1 61 1-3 0.54% 5-3
59 2019-03-31 Nantes Lille FRA1 61 2-0 0.55% 2-3
60 2010-11-20 Arsenal Tottenham ENG1 49 2-0 0.56% 2-3
61 2018-04-28 Inter Milan Juventus ITA1 86 2-1 0.56% 2-3
62 2012-05-20 Lyon Nice FRA1 30 2-0 0.56% 3-4
63 2018-04-14 Southampton Chelsea ENG1 69 2-0 0.59% 2-3
64 2016-03-19 Sporting Gijon Atlético Madrid ESP1 78 0-1 0.59% 2-1
65 2010-10-16 Wolfsburg Leverkusen DEU1 71 2-0 0.60% 2-3
66 2017-12-12 Crystal Palace Watford ENG1 88 0-1 0.61% 2-1
67 2016-09-24 Sunderland Crystal Palace ENG1 60 2-0 0.61% 2-3
68 2018-01-17 Lille Rennes FRA1 84 1-0 0.64% 1-2
69 2011-04-30 Real Sociedad Barcelona ESP1 70 0-1 0.64% 2-1
70 2013-05-18 Dortmund Hoffenheim DEU1 76 1-0 0.67% 1-2
71 2010-09-19 Sampdoria Napoli ITA1 82 1-0 0.69% 1-2
72 2019-09-26 Eibar Sevilla ESP1 65 0-2 0.70% 3-2
73 2013-01-19 Real Sociedad Barcelona ESP1 40 0-2 0.71% 3-2
74 2019-03-02 Eintracht Hoffenheim DEU1 88 1-2 0.71% 3-2
75 2017-03-31 Espanyol Real Betis ESP1 86 0-1 0.73% 2-1
76 2011-10-31 Sevilla Granada ESP1 78 1-0 0.73% 1-2
77 2015-09-13 Leicester Aston Villa ENG1 71 0-2 0.73% 3-2
78 2015-12-19 1. FC Köln Dortmund DEU1 81 0-1 0.74% 2-1
79 2016-03-20 Southampton Liverpool ENG1 63 0-2 0.74% 3-2
80 2012-03-04 Real Zaragoza Villarreal ESP1 84 0-1 0.78% 2-1
81 2012-01-02 Fulham Arsenal ENG1 84 0-1 0.79% 2-1
82 2013-02-23 Norwich Everton ENG1 83 0-1 0.80% 2-1
83 2019-02-10 Nantes Nîmes FRA1 47 2-0 0.80% 2-4
84 2013-10-05 Levante Real Madrid ESP1 89 2-1 0.83% 2-3
85 2011-05-11 Osasuna Sevilla ESP1 86 1-2 0.83% 3-2
86 2013-01-06 Juventus Sampdoria ITA1 51 1-0 0.83% 1-2
87 2011-01-09 Fiorentina Brescia ITA1 71 0-2 0.84% 3-2
88 2016-09-21 Werder Bremen Mainz DEU1 86 1-0 0.87% 1-2
89 2018-12-01 Monaco Montpellier FRA1 80 1-0 0.87% 1-2
90 2016-11-26 Bordeaux Dijon FRA1 87 1-2 0.88% 3-2
91 2011-08-27 Hamburger SV 1. FC Köln DEU1 83 3-2 0.88% 3-4
92 2016-09-18 Udinese Chievo ITA1 81 1-0 0.89% 1-2
93 2012-03-24 Gladbach Hoffenheim DEU1 76 1-0 0.90% 1-2
94 2011-10-01 Málaga Getafe ESP1 87 1-2 0.90% 3-2
95 2019-03-09 Newcastle Everton ENG1 64 0-2 0.90% 3-2
96 2014-03-15 Hoffenheim Mainz DEU1 66 2-0 0.90% 2-4
97 2016-11-19 Deportivo Sevilla ESP1 86 2-1 0.91% 2-3
98 2016-01-23 Lille Troyes FRA1 76 1-0 0.93% 1-3
99 2018-05-06 Toulouse Lille FRA1 79 2-1 0.93% 2-3
100 2012-11-11 VfB Stuttgart Hannover 96 DEU1 56 2-0 0.94% 2-4
101 2015-08-09 Bordeaux Reims FRA1 79 1-0 0.94% 1-2
102 2015-04-05 Nantes Caen FRA1 79 1-0 0.95% 1-2
103 2018-03-18 Villarreal Atlético Madrid ESP1 81 0-1 0.95% 2-1
104 2012-09-29 Sevilla Barcelona ESP1 88 2-1 0.96% 2-3
105 2016-09-24 Werder Bremen Wolfsburg DEU1 85 0-1 0.97% 2-1
106 2019-04-30 Montpellier PSG FRA1 79 1-2 0.97% 3-2
107 2014-01-26 Cagliari Milan ITA1 86 1-0 0.99% 1-2
108 2014-10-26 Sevilla Villarreal ESP1 87 0-1 0.99% 2-1
109 2010-11-07 Real Zaragoza Mallorca ESP1 83 1-2 1.03% 3-2
110 2017-01-28 Leverkusen Gladbach DEU1 51 2-0 1.04% 2-3
111 2014-01-19 Udinese Lazio ITA1 81 2-1 1.07% 2-3
112 2011-08-27 Valenciennes Bordeaux FRA1 79 1-0 1.08% 1-2
113 2011-02-05 Stoke City Sunderland ENG1 82 1-2 1.09% 3-2
114 2015-05-09 Toulouse Lille FRA1 80 1-2 1.09% 3-2
115 2016-11-19 Tottenham West Ham ENG1 88 1-2 1.10% 3-2
116 2013-09-21 West Ham Everton ENG1 82 2-1 1.10% 2-3
117 2011-04-30 Lens Lorient FRA1 82 2-1 1.11% 2-3
118 2014-03-31 Real Betis Málaga ESP1 82 1-0 1.11% 1-2
119 2015-08-22 Hamburger SV VfB Stuttgart DEU1 83 1-2 1.12% 3-2
120 2018-10-06 Man. United Newcastle ENG1 69 0-2 1.12% 3-2
121 2017-11-26 Villarreal Sevilla ESP1 55 2-0 1.13% 2-3
122 2016-10-02 Milan Sassuolo ITA1 68 1-3 1.14% 4-3
123 2017-04-05 Swansea City Tottenham ENG1 87 1-0 1.16% 1-3
124 2013-04-27 Ajaccio Montpellier FRA1 81 0-1 1.17% 2-1
125 2014-05-07 PSG Rennes FRA1 22 1-0 1.17% 1-2
126 2017-11-05 Everton Watford ENG1 66 0-2 1.18% 3-2
127 2016-12-31 Man. United Middlesbrough ENG1 84 0-1 1.19% 2-1
128 2013-08-19 Almería Villarreal ESP1 82 2-1 1.19% 2-3
129 2015-12-28 Everton Stoke City ENG1 79 3-2 1.21% 3-4
130 2020-02-08 Amiens Monaco FRA1 84 1-0 1.22% 1-2
131 2016-10-02 Málaga Athletic Bilbao ESP1 81 0-1 1.22% 2-1
132 2013-05-19 Real Zaragoza Athletic Bilbao ESP1 79 1-0 1.23% 1-2
133 2012-10-20 Valencia Athletic Bilbao ESP1 87 1-2 1.23% 3-2
134 2016-04-20 Roma Torino ITA1 85 1-2 1.24% 3-2
135 2016-12-22 Cagliari Sassuolo ITA1 61 1-3 1.25% 4-3
136 2010-11-27 Wolves Sunderland ENG1 80 1-2 1.25% 3-2
137 2010-09-13 Stoke City Aston Villa ENG1 79 0-1 1.25% 2-1
138 2016-09-10 Sevilla Las Palmas ESP1 88 0-1 1.26% 2-1
139 2011-01-15 Lens St Étienne FRA1 81 0-1 1.26% 2-1
140 2014-08-31 Metz Lyon FRA1 81 0-1 1.27% 2-1
141 2017-11-29 Toulouse Nice FRA1 79 1-0 1.29% 1-2
142 2011-04-03 Napoli Lazio ITA1 59 0-2 1.30% 4-3
143 2017-04-22 FC Ingolstadt 04 Werder Bremen DEU1 80 2-1 1.31% 2-4
144 2018-09-29 Leverkusen Dortmund DEU1 64 2-0 1.31% 2-4
145 2011-09-17 Toulouse Bordeaux FRA1 51 0-2 1.31% 3-2
146 2017-02-26 Villarreal Real Madrid ESP1 63 2-0 1.32% 2-3
147 2012-11-28 Stoke City Newcastle ENG1 80 0-1 1.32% 2-1
148 2019-09-15 Eibar Espanyol ESP1 75 1-0 1.33% 1-2
149 2019-01-29 Newcastle Man. City ENG1 65 0-1 1.33% 2-1
150 2016-09-10 West Ham Watford ENG1 40 2-0 1.34% 2-4
151 2015-10-24 Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart DEU1 69 1-3 1.35% 4-3
152 2015-12-13 Tottenham Newcastle ENG1 73 1-0 1.35% 1-2
153 2011-10-23 Lecce Milan ITA1 48 3-0 1.35% 3-4
154 2020-01-18 Southampton Wolves ENG1 52 2-0 1.36% 2-3
155 2014-04-19 Chelsea Sunderland ENG1 17 1-0 1.37% 1-2
156 2015-09-28 West Brom Everton ENG1 54 2-0 1.37% 2-3
157 2014-10-25 Eintracht VfB Stuttgart DEU1 80 4-3 1.38% 4-5
158 2010-08-21 SC Freiburg FC St. Pauli DEU1 82 1-0 1.38% 1-3
159 2018-02-03 Schalke 04 Werder Bremen DEU1 78 1-0 1.38% 1-2
160 2018-04-08 Napoli Chievo ITA1 88 0-1 1.39% 2-1
161 2020-02-08 Verona Juventus ITA1 75 0-1 1.39% 2-1
162 2011-08-27 Valencia Racing ESP1 87 2-3 1.41% 4-3
163 2017-11-04 Bologna Crotone ITA1 67 2-1 1.41% 2-3
164 2017-05-13 Mainz Eintracht DEU1 59 0-2 1.42% 4-2
165 2016-10-30 Eibar Villarreal ESP1 79 0-1 1.42% 2-1
166 2012-04-07 Milan Fiorentina ITA1 46 1-0 1.43% 1-2
167 2016-05-14 Angers Toulouse FRA1 77 2-1 1.44% 2-3
168 2016-04-23 Schalke 04 Leverkusen DEU1 53 2-0 1.44% 2-3
169 2017-08-19 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad ESP1 79 2-1 1.44% 2-3
170 2014-02-01 Barcelona Valencia ESP1 43 1-0 1.45% 2-3
171 2014-01-12 Sassuolo Milan ITA1 14 0-2 1.46% 4-3
172 2018-12-29 Tottenham Wolves ENG1 71 1-0 1.47% 1-3
173 2019-10-26 Brighton Everton ENG1 79 1-2 1.48% 3-2
174 2018-11-25 Empoli Atalanta ITA1 41 0-2 1.49% 3-2
175 2017-02-12 Atlético Madrid Celta Vigo ESP1 85 1-2 1.49% 3-2
176 2013-03-03 Catania Inter Milan ITA1 51 2-0 1.50% 2-3
177 2013-09-28 Aston Villa Man. City ENG1 72 1-2 1.50% 3-2
178 2013-10-26 Guingamp Ajaccio FRA1 85 0-1 1.50% 2-1
179 2012-11-10 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo ESP1 58 0-2 1.51% 3-2
180 2017-02-25 Lille Bordeaux FRA1 77 2-1 1.51% 2-3
181 2013-02-09 Dortmund Hamburger SV DEU1 17 1-0 1.51% 1-4
182 2010-09-26 Newcastle Stoke City ENG1 66 1-0 1.52% 1-2
183 2015-04-11 West Brom Leicester ENG1 79 2-1 1.55% 2-3
184 2014-11-02 Aston Villa Tottenham ENG1 83 1-0 1.56% 1-2
185 2019-12-18 Eintracht 1. FC Köln DEU1 43 2-0 1.57% 2-4
186 2017-01-15 Sevilla Real Madrid ESP1 84 0-1 1.58% 2-1
187 2016-01-15 Nice Angers FRA1 79 0-1 1.59% 2-1
188 2012-12-08 Dortmund Wolfsburg DEU1 35 1-0 1.60% 2-3
189 2014-01-25 Sevilla Levante ESP1 70 2-1 1.60% 2-3
190 2012-09-02 Southampton Man. United ENG1 86 2-1 1.62% 2-3
191 2016-10-16 Inter Milan Cagliari ITA1 70 1-0 1.64% 1-2
192 2019-11-02 Aston Villa Liverpool ENG1 86 1-0 1.65% 1-2
193 2015-09-24 Montpellier Monaco FRA1 55 2-0 1.67% 2-3
194 2014-05-18 Chievo Inter Milan ITA1 72 0-1 1.67% 2-1
195 2014-02-01 Bastia Guingamp FRA1 80 1-2 1.67% 3-2
196 2020-01-25 Wolfsburg Hertha BSC DEU1 73 1-0 1.67% 1-2
197 2016-08-13 Metz Lille FRA1 75 1-2 1.68% 3-2
198 2019-02-17 Real Madrid Girona ESP1 64 1-0 1.68% 1-2
199 2015-05-10 Cesena Sassuolo ITA1 47 2-0 1.69% 2-3
200 2018-12-22 Man. City Crystal Palace ENG1 32 1-0 1.69% 2-3
201 2012-03-10 Valenciennes St Étienne FRA1 72 1-0 1.71% 1-2
202 2013-09-20 St Étienne Toulouse FRA1 62 1-0 1.73% 1-2
203 2020-01-20 Atalanta SPAL ITA1 53 1-0 1.73% 1-2
204 2012-04-12 Villarreal Málaga ESP1 82 0-1 1.74% 2-1
205 2011-05-15 Wigan Athletic West Ham ENG1 56 0-2 1.75% 3-2
206 2019-03-31 Cardiff City Chelsea ENG1 83 1-0 1.76% 1-2
207 2013-12-08 Verona Atalanta ITA1 81 0-1 1.78% 2-1
208 2016-10-29 Wolfsburg Leverkusen DEU1 78 1-0 1.78% 1-2
209 2015-01-17 Burnley Crystal Palace ENG1 27 2-0 1.80% 2-3
210 2018-02-10 Dijon Nice FRA1 77 1-2 1.80% 3-2
211 2017-10-21 FC Augsburg Hannover 96 DEU1 75 1-0 1.81% 1-2
212 2014-02-08 Guingamp Reims FRA1 68 1-0 1.82% 1-2
213 2015-05-23 Gladbach FC Augsburg DEU1 71 1-0 1.82% 1-3
214 2018-02-17 Málaga Valencia ESP1 79 1-0 1.83% 1-2
215 2018-03-05 Crystal Palace Man. United ENG1 54 2-0 1.83% 2-3
216 2012-01-04 Everton Bolton ENG1 66 1-0 1.83% 1-2
217 2016-01-04 Sporting Gijon Getafe ESP1 68 1-0 1.83% 1-2
218 2014-04-27 Sampdoria Chievo ITA1 80 0-1 1.83% 2-1
219 2017-02-12 Sampdoria Bologna ITA1 81 0-1 1.84% 3-1
220 2014-12-07 Evian TG Lyon FRA1 80 2-1 1.84% 2-3
221 2013-05-18 Sampdoria Juventus ITA1 30 0-1 1.84% 3-2
222 2011-12-11 Sunderland Blackburn Rovers ENG1 83 0-1 1.87% 2-1
223 2014-02-22 SC Freiburg FC Augsburg DEU1 77 2-1 1.88% 2-4
224 2013-08-25 Cardiff City Man. City ENG1 59 0-1 1.88% 3-2
225 2011-01-15 Montpellier Valenciennes FRA1 79 0-1 1.90% 2-1
226 2011-03-06 Hércules Almería ESP1 69 1-0 1.92% 1-2
227 2016-09-11 Nice Marseille FRA1 77 1-2 1.92% 3-2
228 2010-09-26 Cesena Napoli ITA1 71 1-0 1.93% 1-4
229 2014-04-27 Espanyol Almería ESP1 68 1-0 1.96% 1-2
230 2013-04-21 Bastia Lille FRA1 84 1-0 1.96% 1-2
231 2017-11-20 Verona Bologna ITA1 73 2-1 2.00% 2-3
232 2019-12-29 Arsenal Chelsea ENG1 82 1-0 2.00% 1-2
233 2020-02-15 Granada Valladolid ESP1 80 0-1 2.01% 2-1
234 2013-01-19 Marseille Montpellier FRA1 78 1-2 2.03% 3-2
235 2012-12-02 Troyes Rennes FRA1 80 2-1 2.03% 2-3
236 2015-02-22 Real Sociedad Sevilla ESP1 81 2-3 2.03% 4-3
237 2012-02-05 Real Zaragoza Rayo Vallecano ESP1 74 1-0 2.05% 1-2
238 2013-05-19 Siena Milan ITA1 83 1-0 2.05% 1-2
239 2012-05-05 VfB Stuttgart Wolfsburg DEU1 72 0-2 2.05% 3-2
240 2014-11-09 Swansea City Arsenal ENG1 74 0-1 2.05% 2-1
241 2020-02-09 Celta Vigo Sevilla ESP1 77 0-1 2.05% 2-1
242 2018-05-20 Lazio Inter Milan ITA1 77 2-1 2.06% 2-3
243 2019-11-01 Dijon PSG FRA1 46 0-1 2.10% 2-1
244 2013-04-21 Tottenham Man. City ENG1 74 0-1 2.11% 3-1
245 2018-10-06 Girona Eibar ESP1 71 2-1 2.11% 2-3
246 2019-03-09 Southampton Tottenham ENG1 75 0-1 2.11% 2-1
247 2019-09-15 Brescia Bologna ITA1 55 3-1 2.12% 3-4
248 2012-03-25 Espanyol Málaga ESP1 75 1-0 2.13% 1-2
249 2011-02-13 Palermo Fiorentina ITA1 69 2-1 2.13% 2-4
250 2018-05-13 Burnley Bournemouth ENG1 73 1-0 2.14% 1-2
251 2012-03-21 Valencia Real Zaragoza ESP1 29 1-0 2.14% 1-2
252 2010-08-21 1. FC Köln Kaiserslautern DEU1 69 1-0 2.14% 1-3
253 2019-02-17 Genoa Lazio ITA1 74 0-1 2.15% 2-1
254 2014-10-26 Chievo Genoa ITA1 71 1-0 2.15% 1-2
255 2016-12-03 Wolfsburg Hertha BSC DEU1 68 2-1 2.15% 2-3
256 2011-01-25 Blackpool Man. United ENG1 71 2-0 2.16% 2-3
257 2018-05-06 Genoa Fiorentina ITA1 76 2-1 2.17% 2-3
258 2013-02-24 Cagliari Torino ITA1 74 1-2 2.19% 4-3
259 2012-03-31 Sochaux Brest FRA1 76 0-1 2.20% 2-1
260 2017-04-23 Sampdoria Crotone ITA1 66 1-0 2.21% 1-2
261 2016-05-10 West Ham Man. United ENG1 75 1-2 2.22% 3-2
262 2017-01-29 Sampdoria Roma ITA1 70 1-2 2.22% 3-2
263 2018-04-07 Watford Burnley ENG1 69 1-0 2.24% 1-2
264 2014-12-20 Rennes Reims FRA1 65 1-0 2.25% 1-3
265 2017-10-29 Getafe Real Sociedad ESP1 77 0-1 2.26% 2-1
266 2014-04-06 Catania Torino ITA1 78 1-0 2.27% 1-2
267 2011-12-17 Marseille Lorient FRA1 83 0-1 2.28% 2-1
268 2018-09-02 Watford Tottenham ENG1 68 0-1 2.29% 2-1
269 2016-09-18 Inter Milan Juventus ITA1 67 0-1 2.29% 2-1
270 2015-01-16 Bordeaux Nice FRA1 65 1-0 2.30% 1-2
271 2010-10-17 Sampdoria Fiorentina ITA1 79 0-1 2.31% 2-1
272 2018-02-25 RB Leipzig 1. FC Köln DEU1 69 1-0 2.32% 1-2
273 2019-03-30 Celta Vigo Villarreal ESP1 49 0-2 2.32% 3-2
274 2014-12-13 Reims Evian TG FRA1 77 1-2 2.33% 3-2
275 2011-05-15 Catania Roma ITA1 77 0-1 2.34% 2-1
276 2012-12-09 West Ham Liverpool ENG1 75 2-1 2.35% 2-3
277 2012-11-03 Juventus Inter Milan ITA1 58 1-0 2.36% 1-3
278 2015-05-10 Marseille Monaco FRA1 78 0-1 2.36% 2-1
279 2018-11-03 Rayo Vallecano Barcelona ESP1 86 2-1 2.36% 2-3
280 2013-03-30 Torino Napoli ITA1 79 3-2 2.39% 3-5
281 2012-04-11 Sporting Gijon Levante ESP1 73 1-2 2.40% 3-2
282 2013-12-08 Cagliari Genoa ITA1 75 0-1 2.40% 2-1
283 2017-04-03 Inter Milan Sampdoria ITA1 49 1-0 2.41% 1-2
284 2018-04-18 Fiorentina Lazio ITA1 38 2-0 2.41% 3-4
285 2016-03-02 Arsenal Swansea City ENG1 31 1-0 2.43% 1-2
286 2015-02-15 Hannover 96 SC Paderborn DEU1 71 1-0 2.43% 1-2
287 2017-02-25 Alavés Valencia ESP1 77 0-1 2.43% 2-1
288 2012-03-31 St Étienne Nice FRA1 55 2-1 2.44% 2-3
289 2016-12-19 Athletic Bilbao Celta Vigo ESP1 81 0-1 2.45% 2-1
290 2018-03-17 Bournemouth West Brom ENG1 76 0-1 2.46% 2-1
291 2014-03-10 Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano ESP1 46 2-1 2.47% 2-3
292 2019-09-01 Atalanta Torino ITA1 56 2-1 2.48% 2-3
293 2019-04-22 Napoli Atalanta ITA1 68 1-0 2.48% 1-2
294 2015-08-23 Empoli Chievo ITA1 54 1-0 2.48% 1-3
295 2012-08-26 Getafe Real Madrid ESP1 52 0-1 2.48% 2-1
296 2012-10-06 Montpellier Evian TG FRA1 61 2-1 2.52% 2-3
297 2015-09-19 Udinese Empoli ITA1 72 1-0 2.52% 1-2
298 2015-05-02 SC Freiburg SC Paderborn DEU1 69 1-0 2.52% 1-2
299 2013-03-30 Lazio Catania ITA1 78 0-1 2.53% 2-1
300 2016-10-16 Sassuolo Crotone ITA1 82 0-1 2.55% 2-1
301 2015-05-16 SC Freiburg Bayern Munich DEU1 32 0-1 2.55% 2-1
302 2018-09-14 Nice Rennes FRA1 76 0-1 2.59% 2-1
303 2017-10-14 Watford Arsenal ENG1 70 0-1 2.61% 2-1
304 2016-11-06 Hull City Southampton ENG1 60 0-1 2.61% 2-1
305 2019-10-06 Real Sociedad Getafe ESP1 68 1-0 2.63% 1-2
306 2017-01-28 Lorient Dijon FRA1 69 2-1 2.63% 2-3
307 2015-03-16 Fiorentina Milan ITA1 82 0-1 2.65% 2-1
308 2014-08-31 Real Sociedad Real Madrid ESP1 34 0-2 2.66% 4-2
309 2013-02-02 Schalke 04 Fürth DEU1 51 1-0 2.68% 1-2
310 2013-10-30 Valencia Almería ESP1 60 1-0 2.69% 1-2
311 2020-02-01 Watford Everton ENG1 45 2-0 2.69% 2-3
312 2019-04-06 Lyon Dijon FRA1 2 1-0 2.71% 1-3
313 2019-04-13 SPAL Juventus ITA1 48 0-1 2.72% 2-1
314 2013-03-10 Parma Torino ITA1 76 0-1 2.74% 4-1
315 2011-12-31 Chelsea Aston Villa ENG1 27 1-0 2.75% 1-3
316 2016-08-20 Watford Chelsea ENG1 79 1-0 2.78% 1-2
317 2014-04-27 Villarreal Barcelona ESP1 64 2-0 2.79% 2-3
318 2019-12-01 Napoli Bologna ITA1 57 1-0 2.79% 1-2
319 2017-12-03 Leganés Villarreal ESP1 71 0-1 2.80% 3-1
320 2011-04-09 VfB Stuttgart Kaiserslautern DEU1 67 2-1 2.81% 2-4
321 2016-05-07 Sunderland Chelsea ENG1 66 1-2 2.81% 3-2
322 2016-02-27 Southampton Chelsea ENG1 74 1-0 2.83% 1-2
323 2020-01-18 FC Augsburg Dortmund DEU1 58 3-1 2.83% 3-5
324 2019-11-23 Atalanta Juventus ITA1 73 1-0 2.84% 1-3
325 2013-11-25 Málaga Athletic Bilbao ESP1 67 1-0 2.85% 1-2
326 2014-12-07 Atalanta Cesena ITA1 45 0-2 2.85% 3-2
327 2018-11-10 Atlético Madrid Athletic Bilbao ESP1 79 1-2 2.87% 3-2
328 2014-05-11 Atalanta Milan ITA1 67 0-1 2.88% 2-1
329 2014-09-21 Everton Crystal Palace ENG1 29 1-0 2.88% 2-3
330 2012-02-11 Udinese Milan ITA1 76 1-0 2.89% 1-2
331 2019-11-23 Dijon Rennes FRA1 69 0-1 2.89% 2-1
332 2014-02-01 Málaga Sevilla ESP1 76 1-2 2.90% 3-2
333 2011-09-25 Chievo Genoa ITA1 73 0-1 2.91% 2-1
334 2011-04-17 Osasuna Athletic Bilbao ESP1 68 1-0 2.92% 1-2
335 2018-01-14 Bournemouth Arsenal ENG1 69 0-1 2.93% 2-1
336 2017-02-05 FC Augsburg Werder Bremen DEU1 78 1-2 2.93% 3-2
337 2016-05-02 Genoa Roma ITA1 76 2-1 2.93% 2-3
338 2012-12-15 Sochaux Brest FRA1 62 1-0 2.94% 1-2
339 2019-01-29 Fulham Brighton ENG1 46 0-2 2.95% 4-2
340 2020-02-08 Leverkusen Dortmund DEU1 80 2-3 2.97% 4-3
341 2016-05-08 Levante Atlético Madrid ESP1 29 0-1 2.97% 2-1
342 2018-01-02 Southampton Crystal Palace ENG1 68 1-0 2.97% 1-2
343 2013-08-17 Arsenal Aston Villa ENG1 21 1-0 2.98% 1-3
344 2014-03-30 Valencia Getafe ESP1 24 1-0 2.99% 1-3
345 2017-02-19 Udinese Sassuolo ITA1 69 1-0 3.00% 1-2
346 2011-04-02 West Ham Man. United ENG1 64 2-0 3.00% 2-4
347 2013-11-23 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo ESP1 60 1-3 3.00% 4-3
348 2017-05-21 Swansea City West Brom ENG1 71 0-1 3.01% 2-1
349 2017-04-08 Lyon Lorient FRA1 41 1-0 3.01% 1-4
350 2013-01-19 Newcastle Reading ENG1 70 1-0 3.01% 1-2
351 2019-09-26 Torino Milan ITA1 71 0-1 3.03% 2-1
352 2014-03-02 Eintracht VfB Stuttgart DEU1 79 0-1 3.04% 2-1
353 2014-05-11 Real Betis Valladolid ESP1 75 2-3 3.04% 4-3
354 2018-01-06 Las Palmas Eibar ESP1 72 1-0 3.04% 1-2
355 2011-02-13 Hércules Real Zaragoza ESP1 79 0-1 3.05% 2-1
356 2016-02-20 Lorient Guingamp FRA1 38 0-2 3.06% 4-3
357 2016-04-25 Verona Milan ITA1 71 0-1 3.06% 2-1
358 2012-09-02 Levante Espanyol ESP1 53 0-2 3.07% 3-2
359 2017-08-11 Arsenal Leicester ENG1 82 2-3 3.07% 4-3
360 2013-02-23 Mallorca Getafe ESP1 70 1-0 3.07% 1-3
361 2015-05-16 Liverpool Crystal Palace ENG1 42 1-0 3.09% 1-3
362 2015-10-24 Carpi Bologna ITA1 46 1-0 3.09% 1-2
363 2016-10-22 Lyon Guingamp FRA1 45 1-0 3.11% 1-3
364 2018-04-14 Rennes Metz FRA1 51 1-0 3.12% 1-2
365 2017-12-09 Monaco Troyes FRA1 69 0-2 3.12% 3-2
366 2011-02-05 Wolves Man. United ENG1 9 0-1 3.13% 2-1
367 2012-08-25 Fiorentina Udinese ITA1 66 0-1 3.14% 2-1
368 2012-11-18 Getafe Valladolid ESP1 73 0-1 3.15% 2-1
369 2015-11-29 Genoa Carpi ITA1 56 1-0 3.15% 1-2
370 2014-12-07 Inter Milan Udinese ITA1 59 1-0 3.16% 1-2
371 2020-01-11 Toulouse Brest FRA1 71 2-1 3.16% 2-5
372 2014-11-22 Gladbach Eintracht DEU1 53 1-0 3.17% 1-3
373 2019-09-15 Monaco Marseille FRA1 37 2-0 3.20% 3-4
374 2017-09-20 Mainz Hoffenheim DEU1 22 2-0 3.21% 2-3
375 2011-08-27 Lorient Nancy FRA1 77 0-1 3.21% 2-1
376 2015-10-28 Atalanta Lazio ITA1 68 0-1 3.24% 2-1
377 2016-01-23 Norwich Liverpool ENG1 54 3-1 3.25% 4-5
378 2014-12-03 Bastia Evian TG FRA1 64 1-0 3.25% 1-2
379 2012-10-28 Roma Udinese ITA1 31 2-0 3.25% 2-3
380 2017-12-10 Amiens Lyon FRA1 78 1-0 3.25% 1-2
381 2011-12-04 Wolves Sunderland ENG1 72 0-1 3.26% 2-1
382 2011-02-13 Catania Lecce ITA1 78 1-2 3.27% 3-2
383 2013-03-16 Lille Evian TG FRA1 29 1-0 3.28% 1-2
384 2019-01-12 Crystal Palace Watford ENG1 66 1-0 3.28% 1-2
385 2016-01-02 Watford Man. City ENG1 81 1-0 3.28% 1-2
386 2017-08-26 Roma Inter Milan ITA1 66 1-0 3.29% 1-3
387 2011-05-08 Real Zaragoza Osasuna ESP1 61 1-0 3.30% 1-3
388 2012-11-10 Bastia Valenciennes FRA1 77 2-1 3.32% 2-3
389 2015-12-28 West Ham Southampton ENG1 68 0-1 3.32% 2-1
390 2019-01-27 Lazio Juventus ITA1 73 1-0 3.33% 1-2
391 2013-10-19 Evian TG Guingamp FRA1 73 1-0 3.34% 1-2
392 2016-01-16 Troyes Rennes FRA1 20 2-0 3.34% 2-4
393 2016-02-07 Torino Chievo ITA1 33 1-0 3.34% 1-2
394 2011-10-26 Mallorca Sporting Gijon ESP1 49 1-0 3.36% 1-2
395 2013-02-02 Newcastle Chelsea ENG1 67 1-2 3.36% 3-2
396 2011-12-18 Osasuna Villarreal ESP1 74 0-1 3.37% 2-1
397 2016-10-22 Nantes Rennes FRA1 57 1-0 3.38% 1-2
398 2018-08-11 Montpellier Dijon FRA1 50 1-0 3.40% 1-2
399 2018-04-23 Athletic Bilbao Levante ESP1 41 1-0 3.41% 1-3
400 2019-12-20 Hoffenheim Dortmund DEU1 78 0-1 3.42% 2-1
401 2016-11-18 Leverkusen RB Leipzig DEU1 66 2-1 3.44% 2-3
402 2015-04-26 Torino Juventus ITA1 44 0-1 3.44% 2-1
403 2015-10-24 Aston Villa Swansea City ENG1 67 1-0 3.45% 1-2
404 2017-10-01 Nice Marseille FRA1 25 2-0 3.47% 2-4
405 2012-11-10 Toulouse Ajaccio FRA1 14 1-0 3.47% 2-4
406 2013-04-13 Arsenal Norwich ENG1 84 0-1 3.48% 3-1
407 2010-10-30 Werder Bremen 1. FC Nürnberg DEU1 44 1-0 3.48% 2-3
408 2014-04-26 Montpellier Toulouse FRA1 78 0-1 3.49% 2-1
409 2011-10-15 Auxerre Lille FRA1 70 1-0 3.51% 1-3
410 2012-04-24 Aston Villa Bolton ENG1 61 1-0 3.51% 1-2
411 2011-08-28 Toulouse PSG FRA1 55 1-0 3.51% 1-3
412 2016-10-17 Eibar Osasuna ESP1 28 1-0 3.55% 2-3
413 2012-11-11 Genoa Napoli ITA1 78 2-1 3.55% 2-4
414 2012-03-17 Marseille Dijon FRA1 23 1-0 3.56% 1-2
415 2015-01-10 Crystal Palace Tottenham ENG1 68 0-1 3.56% 2-1
416 2014-01-25 SC Freiburg Leverkusen DEU1 52 1-2 3.56% 3-2
417 2017-04-23 Liverpool Crystal Palace ENG1 41 1-0 3.57% 1-2
418 2019-11-02 Bologna Inter Milan ITA1 74 1-0 3.59% 1-2
419 2010-11-20 Gladbach Mainz DEU1 75 2-1 3.59% 2-3
420 2013-03-03 Marseille Troyes FRA1 80 0-1 3.60% 2-1
421 2017-04-01 Chelsea Crystal Palace ENG1 8 1-0 3.60% 1-2
422 2013-03-31 Valladolid Osasuna ESP1 49 1-0 3.60% 1-3
423 2018-11-09 Levante Real Sociedad ESP1 72 1-0 3.60% 1-3
424 2012-05-02 Ajaccio Sochaux FRA1 73 0-1 3.62% 2-1
425 2011-03-01 Espanyol Mallorca ESP1 62 1-0 3.63% 1-2
426 2011-02-27 Athletic Bilbao Valencia ESP1 70 1-0 3.63% 1-2
427 2018-01-06 Benevento Sampdoria ITA1 68 0-1 3.65% 3-2
428 2015-11-21 West Brom Arsenal ENG1 34 0-1 3.66% 2-1
429 2011-04-16 Rennes Lorient FRA1 50 1-0 3.67% 1-2
430 2013-12-21 Dortmund Hertha BSC DEU1 22 1-0 3.68% 1-2
431 2017-10-14 Dortmund RB Leipzig DEU1 9 1-0 3.68% 2-3
432 2017-04-22 Eintracht FC Augsburg DEU1 77 0-1 3.69% 3-1
433 2017-02-28 Málaga Real Betis ESP1 47 1-0 3.70% 1-2
434 2016-04-21 Real Sociedad Getafe ESP1 44 1-0 3.70% 1-2
435 2015-03-01 Atalanta Sampdoria ITA1 67 1-0 3.71% 1-2
436 2011-11-26 Sunderland Wigan Athletic ENG1 43 1-0 3.72% 1-2
437 2018-09-02 Monaco Marseille FRA1 73 2-1 3.75% 2-3
438 2012-12-01 West Ham Chelsea ENG1 62 0-1 3.75% 3-1
439 2015-05-09 Evian TG Reims FRA1 63 2-1 3.75% 2-3
440 2010-11-21 Real Sociedad Atlético Madrid ESP1 70 1-0 3.76% 2-4
441 2015-02-08 Córdoba Almería ESP1 60 1-0 3.76% 1-2
442 2011-03-06 Hamburger SV Mainz DEU1 60 2-1 3.76% 2-4
443 2013-05-04 West Brom Wigan Athletic ENG1 57 2-1 3.76% 2-3
444 2017-10-14 Juventus Lazio ITA1 46 1-0 3.76% 1-2
445 2020-02-08 Torino Sampdoria ITA1 69 1-0 3.76% 1-3
446 2016-11-27 Angers St Étienne FRA1 58 1-0 3.77% 1-2
447 2019-05-05 Napoli Cagliari ITA1 84 0-1 3.77% 2-1
448 2017-12-16 Montpellier Metz FRA1 28 1-0 3.79% 1-3
449 2014-03-09 Sampdoria Livorno ITA1 48 0-2 3.79% 4-2
450 2016-04-23 Toulouse Lyon FRA1 72 1-0 3.80% 2-3
451 2016-01-24 Eintracht Wolfsburg DEU1 65 0-1 3.82% 3-2
452 2017-04-30 Genoa Chievo ITA1 59 1-0 3.82% 1-2
453 2014-02-15 Lorient Toulouse FRA1 58 1-0 3.83% 1-3
454 2017-11-29 Angers Rennes FRA1 50 1-0 3.83% 1-2
455 2017-12-03 Sampdoria Lazio ITA1 79 1-0 3.83% 1-2
456 2011-11-26 Novara Parma ITA1 69 0-1 3.83% 2-1
457 2012-02-11 Sunderland Arsenal ENG1 74 1-0 3.84% 1-2
458 2018-12-05 Wolves Chelsea ENG1 58 0-1 3.85% 2-1
459 2018-11-04 St Étienne Angers FRA1 72 2-3 3.85% 4-3
460 2010-12-19 Almería Getafe ESP1 28 2-0 3.88% 2-3
461 2015-04-25 Evian TG Bastia FRA1 56 1-0 3.89% 1-2
462 2016-04-02 Barcelona Real Madrid ESP1 61 1-0 3.90% 1-2
463 2013-09-01 Marseille Monaco FRA1 46 1-0 3.91% 1-2
464 2019-09-15 SPAL Lazio ITA1 62 0-1 3.91% 2-1
465 2014-12-06 Caen Nice FRA1 63 2-1 3.92% 2-3
466 2015-08-29 1. FC Köln Hamburger SV DEU1 75 0-1 3.92% 2-1
467 2011-01-09 Catania Inter Milan ITA1 73 1-0 3.93% 1-2
468 2016-12-31 Southampton West Brom ENG1 42 1-0 3.93% 1-2
469 2018-11-30 Cardiff City Wolves ENG1 64 0-1 3.94% 2-1
470 2011-03-05 Bolton Aston Villa ENG1 74 1-2 3.95% 3-2
471 2012-11-10 Real Zaragoza Deportivo ESP1 26 0-2 3.95% 5-3
472 2012-12-22 Osasuna Granada ESP1 40 1-0 3.97% 1-2
473 2018-01-13 Hannover 96 Mainz DEU1 32 0-2 3.97% 3-2
474 2015-09-27 Bologna Udinese ITA1 60 1-0 3.97% 1-2
475 2016-04-11 Deportivo Las Palmas ESP1 57 1-0 3.97% 1-3
476 2017-10-29 Girona Real Madrid ESP1 53 0-1 3.98% 2-1
477 2011-01-23 Getafe Espanyol ESP1 52 1-0 3.99% 1-3
478 2020-03-08 Sampdoria Verona ITA1 76 0-1 4.00% 2-1
479 2013-12-07 Stoke City Chelsea ENG1 41 0-1 4.00% 3-2
480 2012-10-20 West Brom Man. City ENG1 79 1-0 4.00% 1-2
481 2013-02-17 Sochaux PSG FRA1 35 0-1 4.00% 3-2
482 2019-09-20 Strasbourg Nantes FRA1 65 0-1 4.00% 2-1
483 2012-08-25 Espanyol Real Zaragoza ESP1 50 1-0 4.01% 1-2
484 2020-02-09 Inter Milan Milan ITA1 50 0-2 4.01% 4-2
485 2012-12-01 Valencia Real Sociedad ESP1 43 1-0 4.05% 2-5
486 2019-01-05 Huesca Real Betis ESP1 72 0-1 4.05% 2-1
487 2018-01-20 SC Freiburg RB Leipzig DEU1 71 0-1 4.07% 2-1
488 2019-09-01 Rennes Nice FRA1 62 1-0 4.10% 1-2
489 2011-05-07 Schalke 04 Mainz DEU1 51 1-0 4.10% 1-3
490 2016-08-21 Genoa Cagliari ITA1 77 0-1 4.10% 3-1
491 2020-02-16 Lille Marseille FRA1 65 1-0 4.11% 1-2
492 2019-12-08 Newcastle Southampton ENG1 67 0-1 4.11% 2-1
493 2013-05-26 Osasuna Sevilla ESP1 62 0-1 4.11% 2-1
494 2012-03-21 Man. City Chelsea ENG1 77 0-1 4.12% 2-1
495 2012-03-03 Rayo Vallecano Racing ESP1 44 0-2 4.14% 4-2
496 2018-12-26 Leicester Man. City ENG1 18 0-1 4.15% 2-1
497 2011-04-03 Espanyol Racing ESP1 49 1-0 4.15% 1-2
498 2011-04-17 Montpellier Marseille FRA1 68 1-0 4.15% 1-2
499 2016-09-22 Deportivo Leganés ESP1 54 1-0 4.16% 1-2
500 2014-08-23 Hannover 96 Schalke 04 DEU1 66 0-1 4.16% 2-1

Method

Using our In-play model, we estimate the likelihood of each possible result (Home win / Draw / Away win) at the start of every minute of the game. The model takes into account:

The model generates Home win / Draw / Away win probabilities at the start of every minute of a match.

The comeback in the example above seemed least likely at minute 65 where the away team (Blue), 1-0 down, were estimated to have a 4% chance of winning the match.

This approach is run for all matches played in the top 5 leagues in Europe for which the winning team was losing at some point in the game. The results are then ordered by the winning team's likelihood of winning the match at the point of the match where winning seemed least likely.

Caveats and limitations:


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek