Fiorentina


4 : 0

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

47%

Draw

26%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

58%

Draw

22%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.4 1.6
Diff 0.9 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 26% 27%
Observed-shots-based 58% 22% 20%
Diff 11% -4% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 70 87 65 5
Defence 35 95 30 13
Overall 57 97 43 3


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