Lazio


2 : 1

Cagliari


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

63%

Draw

21%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

61%

Draw

25%

Away win

14%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.0 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.6 0.7
Diff -0.4 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 63% 21% 17%
Observed-shots-based 61% 25% 14%
Diff -2% 4% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 42 65 44 66
Defence 56 34 58 35
Overall 47 53 53 47


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