Parma


2 : 1

Napoli


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

19%

Draw

23%

Away win

59%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

38%

Draw

29%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.9 1.8
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.9
Diff 1.0 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 19% 23% 59%
Observed-shots-based 38% 29% 33%
Diff 20% 6% -26%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 79 52 54 23
Defence 46 77 21 48
Overall 67 74 33 26


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