Sheffield United


0 : 1

Everton


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

35%

Draw

27%

Away win

37%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

54%

Draw

32%

Away win

14%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.1 0.5
Diff -0.1 -0.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 35% 27% 37%
Observed-shots-based 54% 32% 14%
Diff 18% 5% -23%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 49 14 29 77
Defence 71 23 51 86
Overall 64 8 36 92


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