Juventus


2 : 1

Lazio


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

57%

Draw

23%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.5

Home win

83%

Draw

11%

Away win

5%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 3.5 1.5
Diff 1.7 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 23% 20%
Observed-shots-based 83% 11% 5%
Diff 26% -11% -15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 81 13 65 33
Defence 35 67 19 87
Overall 70 27 30 73


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