The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

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	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.3	0.9
Observed-shots-based	1.8	0.6
Diff	0.5	-0.3

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	45%	28%	26%
Observed-shots-based	70%	20%	10%
Diff	24%	-8%	-16%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	64	95		43	25
Defence	57	75		36	5
Overall	66	97		34	3