Verona


1 : 1

Atalanta


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

19%

Draw

22%

Away win

59%

Away Goals

2.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

23%

Draw

24%

Away win

53%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 2.0
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.7
Diff 0.1 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 19% 22% 59%
Observed-shots-based 23% 24% 53%
Diff 4% 3% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 50 46 30
Defence 54 70 47 50
Overall 55 65 45 35


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