Torino


3 : 0

Genoa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

39%

Draw

26%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

30%

Draw

28%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.4
Diff -0.2 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 26% 35%
Observed-shots-based 30% 28% 42%
Diff -9% 2% 7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 94 53 10
Defence 47 90 54 6
Overall 45 98 55 2


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