Leicester City


2 : 0

Sheffield United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

51%

Draw

25%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

62%

Draw

23%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.9
Diff 0.4 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 51% 25% 24%
Observed-shots-based 62% 23% 15%
Diff 11% -2% -9%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 58 55 50 16
Defence 50 84 42 45
Overall 57 75 43 25


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