Sassuolo


3 : 3

Juventus


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

22%

Draw

23%

Away win

54%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

40%

Draw

22%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

2.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.8
Observed-shots-based 2.4 2.3
Diff 1.3 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 22% 23% 54%
Observed-shots-based 40% 22% 38%
Diff 18% -2% -16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 79 70 62 69
Defence 38 31 21 30
Overall 62 49 38 51


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