Arsenal


2 : 1

Liverpool


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

24%

Draw

23%

Away win

53%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

3%

Draw

10%

Away win

86%

Away Goals

2.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.8
Observed-shots-based 0.5 2.7
Diff -0.6 0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 24% 23% 53%
Observed-shots-based 3% 10% 86%
Diff -21% -13% 33%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 33 96 68 13
Defence 32 87 67 4
Overall 25 98 75 2


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