Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Home Goals
1.2
Home win
24%
Draw
23%
Away win
53%
Away Goals
1.8
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.5
Home win
3%
Draw
10%
Away win
86%
Away Goals
2.7
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.5 | 2.7 |
Diff | -0.6 | 0.9 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 24% | 23% | 53% |
Observed-shots-based | 3% | 10% | 86% |
Diff | -21% | -13% | 33% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 33 | 96 | 68 | 13 | |
Defence | 32 | 87 | 67 | 4 | |
Overall | 25 | 98 | 75 | 2 |
© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek