Wolverhampton Wanderers


3 : 0

Everton


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

44%

Draw

28%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

81%

Draw

15%

Away win

4%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.0 0.5
Diff 0.7 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 44% 28% 28%
Observed-shots-based 81% 15% 4%
Diff 37% -14% -24%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 68 79 35 31
Defence 65 69 32 21
Overall 74 85 26 15


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