Verona


2 : 2

Internazionale


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

20%

Draw

23%

Away win

57%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

24%

Draw

27%

Away win

48%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.8
Observed-shots-based 1.0 1.5
Diff -0.0 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 20% 23% 57%
Observed-shots-based 24% 27% 48%
Diff 4% 5% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 51 85 43 69
Defence 57 31 49 15
Overall 56 62 44 38


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