Torino


3 : 1

Brescia


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

55%

Draw

23%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

56%

Draw

21%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.4 1.6
Diff 0.6 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 55% 23% 22%
Observed-shots-based 56% 21% 23%
Diff 2% -2% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 62 68 63 34
Defence 37 66 38 32
Overall 51 75 49 25


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