Lecce


2 : 1

Lazio


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

19%

Draw

18%

Away win

63%

Away Goals

2.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

52%

Draw

22%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

2.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 2.5
Observed-shots-based 2.5 2.0
Diff 1.2 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 19% 18% 63%
Observed-shots-based 52% 22% 27%
Diff 33% 3% -36%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 77 35 42 24
Defence 58 76 23 65
Overall 74 60 26 40


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