The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	0.9	1.7
Observed-shots-based	1.7	1.6
Diff	0.8	-0.1

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	20%	24%	56%
Observed-shots-based	39%	27%	35%
Diff	19%	3%	-21%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	72	65		49	86
Defence	51	14		28	35
Overall	65	25		35	75