Crystal Palace


2 : 3

Chelsea


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

20%

Draw

24%

Away win

56%

Away Goals

1.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

39%

Draw

27%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.9 1.7
Observed-shots-based 1.7 1.6
Diff 0.8 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 20% 24% 56%
Observed-shots-based 39% 27% 35%
Diff 19% 3% -21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 72 65 49 86
Defence 51 14 28 35
Overall 65 25 35 75


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