Udinese


2 : 2

Genoa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

41%

Draw

26%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

15%

Draw

24%

Away win

61%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.0 1.7
Diff -0.4 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 41% 26% 33%
Observed-shots-based 15% 24% 61%
Diff -26% -2% 28%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 40 85 66 61
Defence 34 39 60 15
Overall 32 73 68 27


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