Granada CF


2 : 2

Valencia


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

43%

Draw

27%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.7

Home win

88%

Draw

10%

Away win

2%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.7 0.5
Diff 1.3 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 43% 27% 29%
Observed-shots-based 88% 10% 2%
Diff 44% -18% -27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 77 34 35 96
Defence 65 4 23 66
Overall 81 7 19 93


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