Juventus


4 : 1

Torino


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

71%

Draw

19%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

36%

Draw

25%

Away win

40%

Away Goals

1.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 0.7
Observed-shots-based 1.8 1.8
Diff -0.3 1.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 71% 19% 11%
Observed-shots-based 36% 25% 40%
Diff -35% 6% 29%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 94 80 25
Defence 20 75 56 6
Overall 27 96 73 4


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