Real Madrid


1 : 0

Getafe


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

62%

Draw

22%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

68%

Draw

23%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.6 0.6
Diff -0.3 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 62% 22% 16%
Observed-shots-based 68% 23% 9%
Diff 6% 1% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 30 42 28
Defence 58 72 56 70
Overall 50 50 50 50


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