Manchester City


4 : 0

Liverpool


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

50%

Draw

24%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

64%

Draw

21%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.2 1.1
Diff 0.4 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 24% 27%
Observed-shots-based 64% 21% 15%
Diff 14% -3% -11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 61 92 49 15
Defence 51 85 39 8
Overall 59 97 41 3


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