Real Betis


0 : 2

Villarreal


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

41%

Draw

24%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

9%

Draw

18%

Away win

73%

Away Goals

2.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.5
Observed-shots-based 0.8 2.1
Diff -0.9 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 41% 24% 36%
Observed-shots-based 9% 18% 73%
Diff -32% -5% 37%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 30 22 64 50
Defence 36 50 70 78
Overall 26 32 74 68


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek