Bournemouth


1 : 4

Newcastle United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

47%

Draw

25%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

51%

Draw

26%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.5
Diff 0.5 0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 25% 28%
Observed-shots-based 51% 26% 23%
Diff 4% 1% -4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 63 16 60 97
Defence 40 3 37 84
Overall 52 1 48 99


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