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Home Goals
1.8
Home win
55%
Draw
23%
Away win
22%
Away Goals
1.1
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.2
Home win
29%
Draw
29%
Away win
42%
Away Goals
1.4
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Diff | -0.6 | 0.3 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Observed-shots-based | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Diff | -26% | 7% | 19% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 37 | 46 | 61 | 95 | |
Defence | 39 | 5 | 63 | 54 | |
Overall | 33 | 9 | 67 | 91 |
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