Mallorca


5 : 1

Celta de Vigo


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

37%

Draw

27%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

34%

Draw

33%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.5 1.4
Diff 0.2 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 27% 36%
Observed-shots-based 34% 33% 33%
Diff -3% 6% -3%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 100 57 34
Defence 43 66 43 0
Overall 50 100 50 0


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