Getafe


2 : 1

Real Sociedad


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

44%

Draw

27%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

65%

Draw

26%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.4 0.5
Diff 0.1 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 44% 27% 28%
Observed-shots-based 65% 26% 9%
Diff 20% -2% -19%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 74 37 73
Defence 63 27 46 26
Overall 62 54 38 46


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