Parma


1 : 2

Internazionale


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

19%

Draw

23%

Away win

59%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

15%

Draw

19%

Away win

66%

Away Goals

2.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.9 1.8
Observed-shots-based 1.3 2.5
Diff 0.3 0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 19% 23% 59%
Observed-shots-based 15% 19% 66%
Diff -4% -4% 7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 60 44 64 39
Defence 36 61 40 56
Overall 45 54 55 46


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