1. FC Union Berlin


3 : 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

48%

Draw

25%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

22%

Draw

26%

Away win

52%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.0 1.6
Diff -0.6 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 48% 25% 26%
Observed-shots-based 22% 26% 52%
Diff -26% 1% 25%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 37 97 63 9
Defence 37 91 63 3
Overall 31 99 69 1


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