Real Betis


1 : 0

Espanyol


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

52%

Draw

24%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

38%

Draw

31%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.1
Diff -0.5 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 52% 24% 24%
Observed-shots-based 38% 31% 30%
Diff -13% 8% 6%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 40 45 51 12
Defence 49 88 60 55
Overall 42 74 58 26


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek