Burnley


1 : 0

Watford


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

44%

Draw

25%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

35%

Draw

33%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.0 0.9
Diff -0.6 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 44% 25% 31%
Observed-shots-based 35% 33% 32%
Diff -8% 8% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 37 55 42 19
Defence 58 81 63 45
Overall 46 76 54 24


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