Real Valladolid


1 : 1

Getafe


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

31%

Draw

28%

Away win

41%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

54%

Draw

27%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.5 1.0
Diff 0.5 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 31% 28% 41%
Observed-shots-based 54% 27% 19%
Diff 23% -1% -22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 65 30 43 55
Defence 57 45 35 70
Overall 65 33 35 67


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