Barcelona


1 : 0

Athletic de Bilbao


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

70%

Draw

18%

Away win

12%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

76%

Draw

18%

Away win

6%

Away Goals

0.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.3 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.4
Diff -0.3 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 70% 18% 12%
Observed-shots-based 76% 18% 6%
Diff 6% -0% -6%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 25 38 31
Defence 62 69 56 75
Overall 51 38 49 62


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