Villarreal


2 : 2

Sevilla


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

38%

Draw

24%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

25%

Draw

32%

Away win

44%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.5
Observed-shots-based 0.8 1.2
Diff -0.7 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 24% 38%
Observed-shots-based 25% 32% 44%
Diff -13% 7% 6%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 33 90 42 79
Defence 58 21 67 10
Overall 44 60 56 40


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