Lecce


1 : 4

Milan


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

24%

Draw

21%

Away win

55%

Away Goals

2.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

30%

Draw

28%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 2.1
Observed-shots-based 1.5 1.7
Diff 0.2 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 24% 21% 55%
Observed-shots-based 30% 28% 42%
Diff 7% 7% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 33 44 96
Defence 56 4 43 67
Overall 59 3 41 97


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