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Home Goals
2.0
Home win
56%
Draw
21%
Away win
22%
Away Goals
1.2
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
2.4
Home win
78%
Draw
16%
Away win
6%
Away Goals
0.8
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Observed-shots-based | 2.4 | 0.8 |
Diff | 0.4 | -0.4 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 56% | 21% | 22% |
Observed-shots-based | 78% | 16% | 6% |
Diff | 22% | -5% | -16% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 60 | 87 | 41 | 17 | |
Defence | 59 | 83 | 40 | 13 | |
Overall | 64 | 94 | 36 | 6 |
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