1. FSV Mainz 05


3 : 1

SV Werder Bremen


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

46%

Draw

25%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

43%

Draw

22%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.3 2.2
Diff 0.8 1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 46% 25% 29%
Observed-shots-based 43% 22% 35%
Diff -4% -3% 7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 67 71 72 21
Defence 28 79 33 29
Overall 47 84 53 16


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