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Home Goals
1.6
Home win
46%
Draw
25%
Away win
29%
Away Goals
1.2
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
2.3
Home win
43%
Draw
22%
Away win
35%
Away Goals
2.2
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Observed-shots-based | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Diff | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Observed-shots-based | 43% | 22% | 35% |
Diff | -4% | -3% | 7% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 67 | 71 | 72 | 21 | |
Defence | 28 | 79 | 33 | 29 | |
Overall | 47 | 84 | 53 | 16 |
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