Bournemouth


0 : 2

Crystal Palace


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

42%

Draw

26%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

21%

Draw

41%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.5 0.7
Diff -1.0 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 42% 26% 32%
Observed-shots-based 21% 41% 38%
Diff -21% 15% 6%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 25 30 37 91
Defence 63 9 75 70
Overall 41 6 59 94


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