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Home Goals
2.8
Home win
78%
Draw
14%
Away win
8%
Away Goals
0.8
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.2
Home win
32%
Draw
29%
Away win
39%
Away Goals
1.3
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 2.8 | 0.8 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Diff | -1.6 | 0.5 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 78% | 14% | 8% |
Observed-shots-based | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Diff | -46% | 15% | 31% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 21 | 79 | 64 | 75 | |
Defence | 36 | 25 | 79 | 21 | |
Overall | 19 | 53 | 81 | 47 |
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