Borussia Dortmund


0 : 2

1. FSV Mainz 05


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

69%

Draw

18%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

38%

Draw

28%

Away win

34%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.4 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.6 1.5
Diff -0.8 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 69% 18% 13%
Observed-shots-based 38% 28% 34%
Diff -32% 11% 21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 9 67 72
Defence 33 28 65 91
Overall 29 7 71 93


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