Real Betis


2 : 2

Granada CF


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

45%

Draw

27%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

63%

Draw

24%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.9
Diff 0.5 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 27% 28%
Observed-shots-based 63% 24% 13%
Diff 19% -4% -15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 63 58 48 88
Defence 52 12 37 42
Overall 62 25 38 75


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