Leganés


1 : 2

Real Valladolid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

49%

Draw

27%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

53%

Draw

30%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.4 0.9
Diff 0.0 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 49% 27% 23%
Observed-shots-based 53% 30% 17%
Diff 4% 2% -6%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 34 51 89
Defence 49 11 47 66
Overall 51 10 49 90


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