1. FC Union Berlin


1 : 1

FC Schalke 04


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

40%

Draw

28%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

89%

Draw

9%

Away win

2%

Away Goals

0.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.2
Diff 1.1 -0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 40% 28% 32%
Observed-shots-based 89% 9% 2%
Diff 49% -18% -31%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 74 17 25 89
Defence 75 11 26 83
Overall 83 6 17 94


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