Bayer 04 Leverkusen


2 : 4

FC Bayern München


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

24%

Draw

20%

Away win

55%

Away Goals

2.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

17%

Draw

23%

Away win

61%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 2.2
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.9
Diff -0.5 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 24% 20% 55%
Observed-shots-based 17% 23% 61%
Diff -8% 2% 5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 38 85 44 94
Defence 56 6 62 15
Overall 48 24 52 76


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