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Home Goals
1.6
Home win
44%
Draw
25%
Away win
31%
Away Goals
1.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
2.8
Home win
62%
Draw
20%
Away win
17%
Away Goals
1.8
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 2.8 | 1.8 |
Diff | 1.2 | 0.5 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Observed-shots-based | 62% | 20% | 17% |
Diff | 18% | -5% | -14% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 75 | 10 | 64 | 61 | |
Defence | 36 | 39 | 25 | 90 | |
Overall | 63 | 12 | 37 | 88 |
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