1. FSV Mainz 05


0 : 5

RB Leipzig


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

18%

Draw

20%

Away win

62%

Away Goals

2.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.6

Home win

1%

Draw

3%

Away win

94%

Away Goals

4.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 2.2
Observed-shots-based 0.6 4.1
Diff -0.5 1.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 18% 20% 62%
Observed-shots-based 1% 3% 94%
Diff -17% -17% 32%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 36 26 81 70
Defence 19 30 64 74
Overall 17 21 83 79


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