The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	2.0	1.3
Observed-shots-based	0.9	1.8
Diff	-1.1	0.5

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	54%	22%	24%
Observed-shots-based	13%	27%	60%
Diff	-41%	5%	36%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	26	56		63	28
Defence	37	72		74	44
Overall	24	73		76	27