SC Paderborn


1 : 2

1. FC Köln


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

39%

Draw

22%

Away win

39%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

11%

Draw

19%

Away win

70%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.8
Observed-shots-based 0.9 2.2
Diff -0.8 0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 22% 39%
Observed-shots-based 11% 19% 70%
Diff -27% -3% 31%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 31 58 59 47
Defence 41 53 69 42
Overall 31 56 69 44


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