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Valencia


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

37%

Draw

26%

Away win

37%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

40%

Draw

32%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.1 0.9
Diff -0.3 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 26% 37%
Observed-shots-based 40% 32% 29%
Diff 2% 6% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 44 51 39 58
Defence 61 42 56 49
Overall 54 44 46 56


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