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Home Goals
1.0
Home win
27%
Draw
28%
Away win
45%
Away Goals
1.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.3
Home win
53%
Draw
30%
Away win
17%
Away Goals
0.7
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Diff | 0.4 | -0.6 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 27% | 28% | 45% |
Observed-shots-based | 53% | 30% | 17% |
Diff | 26% | 2% | -29% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 61 | 40 | 35 | 65 | |
Defence | 65 | 35 | 39 | 60 | |
Overall | 69 | 32 | 31 | 68 |
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