Espanyol


1 : 1

Atlético Madrid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

27%

Draw

28%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

53%

Draw

30%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.7
Diff 0.4 -0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 28% 45%
Observed-shots-based 53% 30% 17%
Diff 26% 2% -29%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 61 40 35 65
Defence 65 35 39 60
Overall 69 32 31 68


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